Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 37.829350 41.208262 44.968640 49.509554 54.908510 61.208102 69.248354
2025-08-24 32.306956 36.520094 41.538900 48.102489 56.697896 67.957526 84.583700
2025-08-31 30.484344 35.408957 41.584067 50.190961 62.433925 80.300408 111.038298
2025-09-07 27.952110 32.985883 39.493176 48.927650 63.091022 85.379939 128.549608
2025-09-14 26.041054 31.116623 37.839558 47.907298 63.732244 90.385529 148.386958
2025-09-21 24.048003 28.950474 35.540252 45.607404 61.899257 90.598703 158.460381
2025-09-28 22.963171 27.912283 34.693226 45.329923 63.239126 96.857190 187.126461
2025-10-05 22.943901 28.313073 35.895983 48.313712 70.672695 117.754735 282.719618
2025-10-12 21.958062 27.278747 34.896111 47.619525 71.273992 124.081622 340.977040
2025-10-19 21.357967 26.751825 34.604620 48.050957 74.102345 137.057058 469.520908
2025-10-26 21.125746 26.735390 35.078209 49.831231 80.044697 161.906545 858.312862
2025-11-02 20.628084 26.292200 34.841999 50.311505 83.314789 181.251882 1645.270300
2025-11-09 19.533536 25.037452 33.443983 48.938197 83.134965 193.109863 4037.003612
2025-11-16 18.504233 23.843353 32.089296 47.558437 82.853160 206.262785 186366.694979
2025-11-23 18.213951 23.744678 32.501393 49.605524 91.843362 276.429768 NaN
2025-11-30 17.395925 22.770662 31.355056 48.367408 91.639136 299.361402 NaN
2025-12-07 16.693832 21.938000 30.385437 47.367068 91.865378 328.347246 NaN
2025-12-14 15.851117 20.842626 28.893154 45.111154 87.798630 318.305636 NaN
2025-12-21 15.383079 20.320035 28.362070 44.838873 89.805728 368.255488 NaN
2025-12-28 15.417871 20.599122 29.252052 47.765548 103.466593 650.274658 NaN
2026-01-04 14.946051 20.029762 28.577167 47.084883 104.361102 770.973805 NaN
2026-01-11 14.652609 19.738427 28.388131 47.507927 109.718179 1159.060445 NaN
2026-01-18 14.539603 19.737845 28.732486 49.253015 121.617268 3375.493882 NaN